Turkey's main opposition organization – the Republican People's Party (CHP) has effectively split into two. On May 21, the Ankara Regional Court reinstated the party's former leader Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu to his position.
Born in 1948, Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu was a member of the parliament – the Grand National Assembly of Turkey – from 2002 to 2023. He chaired the CHP from May 22, 2010.
At the congress held on November 4-5, 2023, Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu lost the chair election to Özgür Özel.
Born in 1974, Özgür Özel has been a member of parliament since 2011.
In 2025, a group of party members filed a lawsuit seeking the invalidation of the results of the November 4-5, 2023 congress. According to their claim, many delegates of the congress were manipulated by various means and the chair election was rigged.
As soon as the claim was made, the party held an extraordinary congress and on April 6, Özgür Özel was re-elected chairman. However, the lawsuit was not withdrawn; on the contrary, the annulment of the April 6, 2025 congress results also came up for discussion.
At another extraordinary congress held on September 21, Özgür Özel received his third term as chairman.
At the congress on November 28-30, there was another chair election, and Özgür Özel retained his seat.
The decision of the Ankara Regional Court on May 21, 2026 means the annulment of the results of all these congresses. Özgür Özel and his supporters do not accept the decision and resist.
Since winning the local elections in 2024, the Republican People's Party has faced problems and has been under even greater pressure in the context of the initiative to nominate its member Ekrem İmamoğlu for the presidency. Ekrem İmamoğlu graduated from Istanbul University with degrees in Business Administration (bachelor's) and Human Resources Management (master's). He was elected mayor of Istanbul in 2019 and 2024. In 2025, the party decided to announce him as its presidential candidate, scheduling a party-wide vote on March 23.
On March 18, Istanbul University decided to revoke Ekrem İmamoğlu's bachelor's diploma; on March 19, he was arrested amid a wave of arrests on various serious criminal charges; on March 23, he was removed from the mayoral post. This caused sharp protests and mass actions. The nationwide party vote held on March 23 also involved other political forces and public representatives; Ekrem İmamoğlu received a total of 15.5 million votes. On March 27, the party officially declared him the presidential candidate and demanded early elections. During the wave of confrontation, other party representatives, including several mayors, were detained. On July 28, Istanbul University also annulled Ekrem İmamoğlu's master's diploma.
According to the Constitution of Turkey, only a person with higher education can be a presidential candidate.
In the country, presidential and parliamentary elections are held on the same day every five years. The last double election was on May 14, 2023; the parliament was formed, and the presidential election concluded in the second round on May 28.
The Grand National Assembly of Turkey has the right to call for early elections with 360 votes. In that case, the double election system would apply, and the current head of state, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, would be able to run for president again.
Since 2018, the president is also the head of government. No one can be elected president more than twice.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, leader of the Justice and Development Party, was prime minister since 2003, elected president in 2014 and 2018. The limit of two terms is counted from 2018, so Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also received a presidential mandate in 2023.
How could the split of the Republican People's Party change the balance of power in Turkey? What are the chances of the country going to early parliamentary and presidential elections?
Medianews.az asked political analyst Aziz Alibeyli, who stated that the probability of CHP splitting is high: “The process is basically moving toward that. The second possibility is that those dissatisfied with Kılıçdaroğlu choose to stay in the party, not leave. Because the Republican People's Party has a large credit. This is not about financial credit, but generally the abundance of resources. Therefore, the forces not accepting the court decision will first try to hold a party congress within forty days. If this does not happen, most of them will probably consider leaving the party. In any case, it can already be said that the party’s electorate is split into two parts in the struggle with the government.
These events increase the likelihood of the country going to early elections and of Erdoğan being nominated again for the head of state post. On the other hand, in the second scenario, i.e., holding parliamentary and presidential elections as planned in 2028 with the ruling party fielding a different candidate for president, the chances of the current government winning increase significantly. Because opposition unity does not seem possible.”
Political scientist Oktay Qasımov Medianews.az stated that although the decision regarding the CHP was made by the court in Turkey, it is obvious that political influences are at play: “The decision has caused serious disagreements and even the danger of a split in the CHP. There is a claim that Özgür Özel might establish a separate party. Under Özel’s leadership, the CHP has won convincing victories in municipal elections in major cities. It appears that the CHP was able to achieve this result due both to the new team formed by Özel and society’s fatigue with the Justice and Development Party government.
In Turkey, both sides – the government and the opposition – are seriously preparing for the 2028 elections. Naturally, the ruling party is primarily interested in weakening its main rival CHP. Recently, several mayors from CHP-run major cities have been arrested on corruption charges, and now the court’s annulment of the congress results from three years ago is an event favorable to the government’s interests. These processes weaken the CHP. Some CHP members claim that the party is preserving its strength, but their problems have become serious. In any case, the party will have to hold an extraordinary congress to regroup. At this congress, new elections must be held, and all parties must accept those results. Only then can it be agreed that the CHP is preserving its strength. Otherwise, a split is inevitable. This scenario is especially convenient for the ruling party’s interests in the next parliamentary and presidential elections – regardless of whether they are held early or not. It will then be hard to believe that the ruling party’s candidate will face a strong rival.”
Naile Qasımova,
Medianews.az