What is happening today in the Middle East is the profound disruption of a security system that has lasted for decades. The Gulf countries, which long sought refuge under the "security umbrella" of the United States, are now beginning to think that this umbrella is unreliable and was increasingly created to protect Israel’s interests.
The deployment of Pakistani military personnel in Saudi Arabia marks a new chapter in the history of the strategic region. This is the first serious sign of epochal changes. Apart from the U.S., only Turkey has a military base (in Qatar) in the region, which brings to the fore Ankara and Islamabad's role as an alternative "defense shield" for the Gulf.
The recent real demonstration of power by Tel Aviv, its aggressive ambitions, and the increasing foundation of its foreign policy on religious-ideological views are raising alarm bells in the Gulf capitals. Washington’s complete passivity, and even siding with Israel’s interests in the face of these aggressive ambitions, has turned into a major risk factor for the Gulf countries and the Islamic world. Such an approach has strengthened the position of those siding with Iran due to the perception that some of Iran’s claims against Israel are now justified.
The Gulf countries may begin to prioritize China’s role as a mediator rather than the U.S.’s military containment policy to prevent Iran from turning the region into an "economic hell" again. China offers a more adequate, fair, and economically beneficial alternative model to ensure stability in the region. This model promotes mutual dependence for the protection of trade routes and energy markets.
The likelihood of establishing a new system of relations with Iran through the mediation of Turkey and Egypt is growing stronger. Ankara could receive greater support than the Gulf countries both as a real military power and as a strategic partner. The Islamic world may try to fill the void created by the U.S.’s Israel-centered policy by gradually strengthening cooperation with China.
Currently, although the entire security system depends on the U.S., the security threats arising from the economy and Israel’s aggressive policy are shifting geopolitical orientations. The Islamic world no longer believes that Washington can control Israel’s aggressive policies. This mistrust may rapidly lead the region towards creating a new security system with Turkey’s and Pakistan’s military weight and strategic support, and China’s economic-diplomatic moderation.
Zaur Ibrahimli