“The price of Brent crude oil has increased by nearly 20 percent, now selling for over $110 per barrel. This means a 30 percent increase in oil prices since the start of the Iran war,” economist and deputy Vuqar Bayramov said in an interview with Medianews.az.
He stated that the increases in oil prices have not gone unnoticed by stock exchanges either: “The risk of a global recession has caused Asian stock exchanges to start this week with significant declines. US President Donald Trump has declared that the rises in oil prices are temporary. According to Trump, after the war ends, prices will decrease and stabilize again. Nevertheless, most investors do not expect sharp declines in oil prices in the short term. This is because not only the difficulties in the Hormuz Strait, where 20 percent of energy products are transported, affect oil prices, but also the situation in the Middle East and especially the decrease in production. Production declines are being recorded in Gulf countries. Production in Iraq has dropped by 60 percent, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have also been forced to reduce production. On the other hand, damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf countries does not allow for quick restoration of production. The US's desire to add 300–400 million barrels of oil daily to the market is not expected to significantly change the balance.
It is clear that the duration and geographical extent of the war remain the main factors affecting stock exchanges. Furthermore, the time and financial resources required to restore the infrastructure damaged during the war should not be overlooked.”
According to V. Bayramov, while the increase in oil prices boosts the revenues of energy-exporting countries, it intensifies challenges in the global economy: “Naturally, this also leads to an increase in Azerbaijan's revenues from oil sales. In 2025, Azerbaijan produced 27.7 million tons of oil including gas condensate. That year, crude oil production averaged 460 thousand barrels per day, and condensate production was 111 thousand barrels per day. Overall, oil production averaged 571 thousand barrels per day. Last year, Azerbaijan exported 23.1 million tons of oil.
The price of one barrel of oil is set at $65 in the state budget for 2026. It is clear that this refers to the annual average price. At the same time, volatility in the oil market suggests that Azerbaijan may earn more revenue from energy sales this year. This will cause an increase in state revenues as well as foreign currency reserves. Even if there are sharp increases in short-term inflows, Azerbaijan, which is interested in cooperation and stability in the region and contributes to a peace agenda, is focused not on fluctuations in the oil market but on long-term balance. Long-term balance in global strategic markets should be determined by economic rather than political factors. However, currently, political factors outweigh economic criteria in world markets.”