The prolongation of the criminal war against Ukraine and the disastrous losses have begun to frighten Russian strategists. One of the main issues that frightens them is Russia’s dependence on China. Konstantin Zatulin, one of the main ideologists of Russian imperialists, in one of his recent interviews posed the rhetorical question, "Is China interested in Russia's swift victory?" and immediately answered that he is not so sure.
Zatulin states that China benefits from the continuation of the war by buying Russian oil and gas at cheap prices. "China operates freely in Eastern Siberia and Russia's Far East as it does in its own country."
In response to a reminder that China sells drones and drone parts to Russia, Zatulin says that China sells the same technology to Ukraine as well.
Zatulin is completely right on this matter. A large part of Ukraine’s imports come from China. According to official data, Ukraine’s imports amounted to 32.2 billion from January to April this year. Imports from China were 8.7 billion dollars, constituting more than 25 percent of Ukraine's total imports. Experts note that Ukraine's drone production is increasing in parallel with imports from China. Some experts also note that Ukraine is ahead in terms of long-range drones because China does not sell certain sensitive parts to Russia.
Another interesting position regarding China was expressed by Sergey Karaganov, considered Putin’s number one political analyst. Karaganov says that China is our friend, but we do not want to be dependent on it. "If the US gives us room to maneuver, we could reduce our dependence on China."
Since Zatulin and Karaganov are regarded as representatives of the official position, they have carefully chosen their statements regarding China.
Somewhat more independent individuals express harsher opinions. For example, Ilya Grashchenkov, president of the Regional Policy Development Center, says that China is a more complicated partner for Russia than the European Union. "China is not really our friend. We are Europeans. We are part of the Western world."
As distrust in Putin's political course deepens, the topic related to China comes to the forefront. Distrust towards China is growing within part of the Russian elite. Undoubtedly, all this is also being observed by the relevant Chinese authorities. China cannot allow Russia to restore its sovereignty again. If Russia attempts this, Beijing will be forced to take some harsh measures.
Xagani Jafarli,
political analyst