1. The Iran crisis is the largest confrontation experienced after the Second World War.
2. The war has already spread to the territories of several states.
3. As a result, the world energy markets and logistics chains have been damaged.
4. After the events in Iran in January 2026, the blocking of the internet and executions were understood by the US as the regime losing its legitimacy.
5. In the first 12 hours, about 900 strikes were carried out on communication hubs, air defense systems, and locations where the Iranian leadership was based.
6. The main success of the allied forces in the initial phase was the neutralization of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
7. Against the backdrop of the paralysis of the central government, the current president Masoud Pezeshkian was forced to transfer extensive administrative powers to provincial governors to prevent a total collapse of state governance.
8. As of March 5, the authority to declare war and peace, as well as to make military appointments, has been transferred to a temporary leadership council consisting of Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.
9. On March 2, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Don Caine declared that local air superiority was achieved over western Iran and Tehran.
10. The destruction of more than 200 air defense systems and about 300 mobile ballistic missile launchers has reduced Iran's retaliatory fire on Israel by 70%.
11. Nevertheless, the Iranian armed forces maintain residual potential by using underground depots and mountainous terrain.
12. Faced with the technological superiority of the US and Israel, the Iranian command has switched to a "distributed revenge" tactic. The main targets were economic infrastructure and diplomatic missions of the countries supporting the operation, rather than mainly the military objects of the coalition.
13. Kuwait: On March 1, a strike on the Arifjan camp resulted in the death of 6 US soldiers. On March 2, a UAV struck the US embassy in Kuwait, leading to the closure of the mission.
Saudi Arabia: The US embassy in Riyadh was attacked on March 3 by two UAVs, causing a fire in the section housing the CIA.
UAE: The US consulate in Dubai was damaged on March 3 by a UAV strike.
14. The number of attack vehicles launched by Iran is sharp: Bahrain neutralized 73 missiles and 91 UAVs alone, and Kuwait's air defense faced more than 380 drones.
15. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and energy shock
The most painful step for the world economy was the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian soldiers mined the fairway and attacked several commercial ships, halting transit that accounts for 20% of the world’s oil consumption. On March 2, Iran attacked the Ras Tanura oil terminal in Saudi Arabia, and after two facilities of Qatar’s "QatarEnergy" company were struck, liquefied natural gas (LNG) production was suspended indefinitely. Market reactions were immediate: Brent crude oil prices rose by 15% to $112 per barrel, while the price of natural gas in Europe increased by 40%.
16. The 2026 war quickly crossed the borders of the Middle East and touched the interests of Iran’s northern neighbors. The positions of Azerbaijan and Turkey have become a particular source of tension.
17. According to data as of March 7, Azerbaijani special services reported the exposure of an Iranian agent network planning sabotage on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
18. Turkey is in an extremely difficult situation. Ankara tries to maintain neutrality, fearing a new wave of refugees and the cut-off of Iranian gas with a trade turnover of $5.5 billion in 2025. However, on March 4, NATO air defense systems neutralized an Iranian ballistic missile directed toward Turkish airspace whose remnants fell in Hatay Province. Although the Pentagon declared that this incident did not activate Article 5 of the NATO treaty, it demonstrated the fragility of Turkey's neutrality. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan admitted that Turkey’s efforts to prevent the war had failed because Tehran refused direct contacts with the Trump administration.
19. Alongside physical strikes, a large-scale confrontation has started in the digital space. The hacker group "Seedworm" (also known as MuddyWater), linked to the Iranian Intelligence Ministry, has been intensifying operations against critical infrastructure in the US, Canada, and Israel since February 2026.
Researchers noted the use of a new backdoor called "Dindoor." Main targets:
A US bank and airport where malicious scripts were placed to collect information.
The Israeli branch of a US company supplying software for defense and aerospace industries.
A Canadian non-profit organization.
Additionally, the pro-Iranian group "Handala" claimed to have stolen 1.3 TB of confidential oil contracts and project details from the "Sharjah National Oil Corporation." Attacks on Amazon Web Services (AWS) data centers caused internet outages in some regions.
20. Russia and China's attitude toward the conflict can be described as "strategic patience." Although they officially condemned US and Israeli actions, neither Moscow nor Beijing has attempted direct military intervention to protect Tehran.
The Iran war has become a "convenient distraction" for Russia:
Economy: Oil prices rising above $112 per barrel allow financing of military operations in Ukraine.
Resources: Western attention and resources are shifted from Kyiv to the Middle East, weakening military aid to Ukraine.
Logistics: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz makes Russia’s energy supply routes more attractive.
Nevertheless, intelligence data show that Russia has transmitted information to Iran about movements of US aircraft carriers. China is primarily interested in energy security and stability of trade routes. As of March 2, more than 3,000 Chinese citizens have been evacuated from Iran.
21. The situation in Tehran remains extremely unstable. Although the temporary leadership apologized to neighbors for the strikes, Donald Trump promised "stronger strikes."
Experts emphasize three main scenarios for the development of events:
Iran's "Maduro" scenario: The regime weakened by bombardments capitulates in exchange for the survival of the elite. Tehran agrees to hand over uranium stockpiles and allow extensive inspections.
Gradual fragmentation and civil war: The collapse of central governance leads to separatist rebellions in ethnic regions. This creates risks of nuclear materials falling into the hands of radical groups.
Long-term war of attrition: Representatives of SEPAH claim that Iran will maintain the ability to strike with UAVs and missiles for at least six months. In this case, the war becomes an "endless conflict" draining US resources.
Aziz Alibeyli,
political analyst