Maintaining stability in the currency market emerges as one of the main priorities in the country's macroeconomic policy. Oil prices, foreign trade balance, and foreign exchange reserves are the main factors directly affecting the exchange rate of the national currency. At the same time, the monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the manat. Alongside this, global economic processes and regional risks bring the topic to the forefront of discussions: "Is devaluation expected in Azerbaijan?"
In a statement to Medianews.az on the topic, economist-expert Asif Ibrahimov said that maintaining stability in the currency market in Azerbaijan remains one of the main macroeconomic priorities of the state at the current stage.
According to him, especially in an economic model where oil revenues hold a large share, energy prices, foreign trade balance, and the volume of strategic foreign currency reserves are considered the main factors directly affecting the manat's exchange rate.
"Currently, the high level of Azerbaijan's strategic foreign currency reserves and the broad capacity of the State Oil Fund and the Central Bank to intervene in the market are among the primary factors supporting the stability of the manat. Maintaining a positive balance in the country's foreign trade increases the supply of currency, reducing pressures on the exchange rate.
The monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank, especially steps aimed at keeping inflation under control and ensuring balance in the currency market, also serves stability. In recent years, the cautious approach that has formed in the financial market and the strengthening of control mechanisms in the banking sector are also considered factors preventing possible risks.”
The expert noted that global economic processes, volatility in the energy market, geopolitical risks, and fluctuations in world financial markets may indirectly affect the Azerbaijani economy:
"Especially if a prolonged and sharp decline occurs in oil prices, this can affect currency inflows and change psychological expectations in the market.
Against the backdrop of current economic indicators, no official signals related to a sharp devaluation risk are observed in the near future. However, because the economy's dependence on oil revenues has not been completely eliminated, changes occurring in global markets are constantly monitored. I believe the main assurance for long-term currency stability is the development of the non-oil sector, diversification of exports, and strengthening of the investment environment.”
Oguz Ayvaz,
Medianews.az